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2025-11-13 06:11:23한국 국가 신용등급 하락 설명
South Korea’s Credit Rating: One Notch Down ExplainedBelow is a summary of South Korea’s current sovereign credit ratings (as of November 2025) and what “one notch lower” would look like for each major rating agency.
(“One notch” refers to the long-term foreign-currency rating; outlook is assumed unchanged.)
| Agency | Current Rating | One Notch Lower | Meaning (in simple terms) |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global | AA | AA– | Still very strong, but signals growing fiscal/political risks |
| Moody’s | Aa2 | Aa3 | Still investment-grade, but drops one step from the top tier |
| Fitch | AA– | A+ | Lowest investment-grade tier; medium-term pressure reflected |
What Happens If Korea Drops One Notch?
| Impact Area | Likely Effect |
|---|---|
| Borrowing Cost | Government bond yields +0.2~0.5% (e.g., 10-yr KTB from 3.2% → 3.5–3.7%) |
| Foreign Investors | Increased selling of Korean stocks & bonds (especially if Fitch falls to A+) |
| KRW Exchange Rate | Won weakens by ₩20–50 vs. USD in the short term |
| Corporate Debt | Large-cap bond spreads widen by 30–70 basis points |
* Historical note: During the 1997 IMF crisis, Korea plunged from A+ → BB → B in months.
A single-notch drop today would not trigger a crisis but would amplify capital outflows and market volatility.
Bottom LineSouth Korea currently sits in the top 5–7% globally (AA / Aa2 range).
A one-notch downgrade (AA– / Aa3 / A+) keeps it investment-grade,
but it hurts investor confidence, raises funding costs, and speeds up foreign capital exit.
출처: https://irvinejournal.com/ASIANews/7498
