밑의 CNBC리포트는 노무라 중국담당헤드 팅류의 보고서를 Base로 작성한 기사 중국공산당가 어제 발표한 중국실업율 ( 공식적으로 2018년 4분기 대비 4.7%에서 무려 5.2%+ 산업생산율이 12월 대비 무려 11%이상 하락한 (중국은 1월 2월 경제지표를 Lumped=한덩어리로 구정핑계 발표) 경제정책실패에 대한 조장하는 이미 닫아버린 두뇌까지 침해하며, 폐와 심장과 혈관등에 쌓이고 뇌졸증을 일으킨다는 일급발암물질 P.M 2.5스모그발생 (석탄을 에너지로 사용하는)공장들과 낡은화력발전소의 재가동을 모른 척하며 경제성장을 독려한다고 간접적으로 비판하는 내용. 


중국에서 특히 동북지방의 39개 도시들 가운데 단 6개만이 PM2.5 초미세먼지를 줄였고 (주: 여전히 WHO기준보다는 한참 높지만) 나머지 도시들은 무려 지난 2016년 2017년 대비 13%가 더 증가했다는 팩트:) 


더 큰 문제는 노무라에서의 올해 중국경제성장율의 예상은 1분기 6.2%로 추락한데 이어서 2분기 무려 5.7%까지 급락할 전망이라는 팩트:) 


즉 올해 뿐만 아니라 구조적으로 향후 중국경제가 다시 'On the Right Growing Healthy Track' 으로 올라오기 전까지 2019년 그리고 내년 2020년 -2021년 계속 중국의 상상을 초월하는 대기오염과 한국과 일본등 주변국으로 미치는 영향이 계속된다는 팩트:)


중국의 산업구조가 석탄을 주 에너지로 하는 산업에서 원자력같은 친환경에너지로 급속하게 바뀌지 않는 이상 향후 언제가 될지 모르는 대기오염의 피해는 고스란히 한중일+ 대만 홍콩 심지어 미얀마 태국 베트남등 모두가 같이 피해를 본다는 팩트:) 


******** 문재앙과 민주당 좌빨들은 친중파 사대주의 21세기 싸이코들이란 팩트:) 하지만 자유한국당은 뭐하냐? 


황교안나경원등 너희 100명이 넘는 자한당 국개의원 내세금처먹는 병신들은 뭐하냐?? 못하겠으면 물러나라 나같은 국민들이 짱개공산당하고 담판을 짓도록 한다는 팩트:) 


자한당 너희는 박근혜대통령관련 문제를 정면으로 거론하지도 못하고 중국시진핑에게 정면으로 한반도관련 정치경제국방문제를 거론하지 못하면 절대로 지지할 일은 없다는 팩트:)  


황교안 나경원 자한당 내일 16일(토) 명동 중국대사관앞에서 가서 시위를 하든지 아님 중국대사를 불러서 강력하게 밑의 증거를 들이면서 항의해라, 너희가 대통령과 정부+ 여당역활을 해야 할 거 아냐 그게 Short-cut Of Moon's Impeachment! 



“Due to the anti-pollution campaign in November 2017 and March 2018, activity data in January-February this year may have been inflated due (to) a low base,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, and his team said in a Thursday report.


In the north, Reuters analysis also found that “only six of 39 smog-prone northern Chinese cities have managed to cut concentrations of hazardous airborne particles known as PM2.5 during the latest winter anti-smog campaign beginning last October. ” The report said average concentrations of PM2.5 rose 13 percent over the period, and cited a government official last week as saying that, while weather was partly a factor, some localities wanted “a rest after years of hardship.”


The economic outlook doesn’t bode well. Nomura’s Lu noted that pent-up demand in April and May of last year likely means the comparable year-on-year data on economic activity in the months ahead will be “negatively affected.” 


Lu lowered his first-quarter gross domestic growth forecast to 6.2 percent growth from the year-ago period, and maintained a forecast of an even slower 5.7 percent growth rate for the second quarter.



참고:) 밑의 CNBC리포트는 에블린 쳉기자 ( 상하이 출신, New York Univ Journalism 최우등 졸업생 CNBC에서 마켓을 커버하는 미중경제전문기자란 팩트, 하지만 중국시진핑 정부를 직간접적으로 엄청나게 비판하는 중국의 신세대출신 대표적인 케이스, 근데 에블린 부모들은 상하이에 여전히 사는 데 괜찮은지, 상하이는 계속 말한 것처럼 태자당 시진핑그룹과 대립각을 분명하게 세운 장쩌민계열의 상하이방의 거점이라서 괜찮은 건지 모르지만 하여간 전세계적으로 중국시진핑공산당에 대한 직간접적인 비판의 선봉에 선 뉴욕맨해튼 월스트릿전문 중국신세대 한류를 좋아하고 싸이의 'Father'와 'Champion' 을 좋아하는 기자) 



Evelyn Cheng CNBC


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China’s fight against smog last year may be obscuring just how bad its economy is this year


KEY POINTS
  • China’s economic activity data in January and February this year may have been inflated due to a low 2018 comparison caused by anti-pollution campaigns, Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, and his team say in a Thursday note.
  • Data released Thursday showed China’s industrial output fell from 5.7 percent in December to 5.3 percent in January and February. Reuters reported that was the slowest pace in 17 year.
  • Analysts also pointed out that, in Thursday’s data release, the majority of fixed-asset investment came from property, while spending growth in areas more critical to the economy was less robust.




GP 181123 Heavy Smog Hits North China


As much as China’s latest economic data indicate a slowdown in growth, a look at seasonal factors — and air pollution levels — signals the deceleration could be more significant, analysts said.

Data released Thursday showed China’s industrial output fell from 5.7 percent in December to 5.3 percent in January and February. That was the slowest pace in 17 years, according to Reuters. Fixed-asset investment rose 6.1 percent and retail sales increased 8.2 percent, both mildly beating the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters.


Economic reports for the year’s first two months are often lumped together in China to account for the Lunar New Year holiday, which typically takes place in early February. As people visit family and friends, the nationwide business shutdown can dampen economic activity.

This year, there may be other factors at play.


“Due to the anti-pollution campaign in November 2017 and March 2018, activity data in January-February this year may have been inflated due (to) a low base,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, and his team said in a Thursday report.



The Chinese government is in the middle of a multi-year effort to reduce air pollution, which has enveloped major cities in unhealthy smog, especially during the winter months. However, cutting the amount of hazardous particles in the air requires less reliance on coal-burning factories, which could have a negative impact on economic growth in the short term.


Anecdotally, in the southeastern part of China around Shanghai and Hangzhou, skies have been gloomy for much of the beginning of the year.


“The Chinese government is seriously concerned about unemployment (first and foremost) and GDP growth,“ Junheng Li, founder of China-focused equity research firm JL Warren Capital, said in a note on Jan. 19. “We have witnessed first-hand that many factories that had shut down previously have now been reopened in the greater Shanghai metropolis, producing severe smog in the city almost daily — far worse than last year.”


In the north, Reuters analysis also found that “only six of 39 smog-prone northern Chinese cities have managed to cut concentrations of hazardous airborne particles known as PM2.5 during the latest winter anti-smog campaign beginning last October. ” The report said average concentrations of PM2.5 rose 13 percent over the period, and cited a government official last week as saying that, while weather was partly a factor, some localities wanted “a rest after years of hardship.”

Slower growth ahead

The Chinese government has indicated it remains intent on cutting back pollution. Premier Li Keqiang said last week in his annual government work report that authorities will strengthen pollution prevention and control in the year ahead.

At the same time, Li gave a lower economic growth target than last year, and said the country must be “fully prepared for a tough struggle.”


The economic outlook doesn’t bode well. Nomura’s Lu noted that pent-up demand in April and May of last year likely means the comparable year-on-year data on economic activity in the months ahead will be “negatively affected.” Lu lowered his first-quarter gross domestic growth forecast to 6.2 percent growth from the year-ago period, and maintained a forecast of an even slower 5.7 percent growth rate for the second quarter.


China’s economy grew at 6.6 percent last year, according to official government data, which represented the slowest pace since 1990. Beijing says it is aiming for 6 to 6.5 percent growth this year.


Analysts also pointed out that Thursday’s data release indicated the majority of fixed-asset investment came from property, while spending growth in areas more critical to the economy was less robust:


  • Manufacturing investment dropped to a 5.9 percent growth rate in January and February, down from 11.6 percent in the fourth quarter.
  • Infrastructure investment grew 2.5 percent, down from a 5.7 percent rate in the three months prior.

”(Thursday’s) data is the third wake-up call to the market in six days, after exports data last Friday and credit data on Sunday, ” Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie, said Thursday in a report. 


“All of them point to strong growth headwinds ahead, which lays the ground for a choppy market like 2012 (earnings downward revision and multiple upward revision, left charts) instead of a bull market like 2017 (both earnings and multiple being revised up).”


One of the few bright spots may be stabilization in retail sales, which Hu said he expects should grow at 8 percent this year, slightly below last year’s 9 percent growth.


The Shanghai composite fell 1.2 percent Thursday, and it’s down more than 3.5 percent over the last five trading days. Still, the index is up 19.9 percent for the year so far.